{"id":3747992,"date":"2019-08-20T16:52:53","date_gmt":"2019-08-20T20:52:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newwebdev.wordpress-developer.us\/hauteresidence\/?p=3747992"},"modified":"2019-08-20T16:59:54","modified_gmt":"2019-08-20T20:59:54","slug":"danielle-short-on-how-the-fed-rate-could-be-good-for-some-luxury-market-sectors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newwebdev.wordpress-developer.us\/hauteresidence\/danielle-short-on-how-the-fed-rate-could-be-good-for-some-luxury-market-sectors\/","title":{"rendered":"Danielle Short On How The Fed Rate Could Be Good For Some Luxury Market Sectors"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Photo by Austin Distel<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nevermind the dog days of summer. The U.S. Federal Reserve has moved the domestic and global markets in big ways: It has cut federal interest rates, also known as the federal funds rate, for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, following a steady stream of rate hikes since 2015. The move would have a trickledown effect that may help \u201centry-level\u201d luxury buyers and savvy real estate investors, or may encourage more foreign purchasers to look to the U.S.<\/p>\n

The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks with balances held at the Federal Reserve, the country\u2019s central bank, can borrow from one another on an overnight basis.\u00a0While there isn\u2019t a direct correlation between mortgage interest rates and the Fed\u2019s funds rate, which is what\u2019s widely anticipated to be cut at the end of the month, U.S. housing markets stand to feel the impact in a few key ways, especially in the lower segments of the market where first-time and millennial buyers have struggled to get a foot in the door.<\/p>\n

Mortgage rates do loosely follow the 10-year Treasury bond rate, which is tied to the Fed\u2019s funds rate, explained Melissa Cohn, a New York City-based broker who is executive vice president of the Private Client Group at Family First Funding LLC.\u00a0\u201cThat really defines where mortgage rates go, so when the bond yields go up, mortgage rates go up,\u201d Ms. Cohn said, and likewise if they go down.<\/p>\n

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Photo by Breno Assis<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Any ripple effect on the housing market will take weeks\u2014if not months\u2014to become evident, and the highest tier of the luxury home market won\u2019t be hugely impacted unless the rate change is half a percent or higher, she said. In interviews with economics, finance and real estate experts in mid-July, this was a common refrain.\u00a0“There’s been so much credit out there, especially on the luxury market side and in the commercial markets, for so long, that I don’t think that a drop in interest rates is going to have much impact on either (of those markets),” said Andrea Heuson, professor of finance at the University of Miami Business School. “Just because anybody who wanted to borrow has been able to borrow.”<\/p>\n

On the other hand, if the Fed cuts rates multiple times in the coming months, as some are speculating, Ms. Cohn said mortgage rates could drop \u201csubstantially\u201d and \u201cthat is great news for the luxury market.\u201d\u00a0\u201cLower rates means lower monthly payments and that will increase the amount that buyers can spend in the luxury market,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Some experts said whether it\u2019s ultimately one rate cut or many, for people shopping around for homes at the low end of the luxury market\u2014properties priced at $2 million or less\u2014even a slight downtick in mortgage interest rates could be just the push they need to sign on the dotted line.\u00a0\u201cAnybody buying in a lower price range really gets affected in the best way,\u201d said Tami Pardee, a Los Angeles-based real estate agent who is founder and CEO of the Halton Pardee brokerage. \u201cWe’re excited ( about the rate cut) because once that happens we usually get an uptick in those buyers for sure.\u201dBased on a review of current listings, her firm focuses on properties throughout Southern California that range from roughly $950,000 to $6 million, with many priced between $1 million to $2 million.<\/p>\n

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Photo by Francesca Tosolini<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In this segment of the market, Ms. Pardee typically encourages clients to consider 10-year mortgages to allow for appreciation to build; 3 to 5 years is too short, she said. Buyers like the safety and security of locking in a low rate and knowing exactly what they’ll owe over the term.<\/p>\n

Another consideration when deciding to take out a mortgage or simply buy with cash, as many luxury homebuyers do, is the federal tax law changes that went into effect at the beginning of 2018. Buyers may now deduct mortgage interest on the first $750,000 of indebtedness for recent home purchases, down from the $1 million cap on mortgages taken out before Dec. 16, 2017.\u00a0In addition, the law now restricts to $10,000 the amount of state and local taxes paid on a property that homeowners can deduct from their federal tax bill, which was unwelcome news to homeowners in high-tax states like New York and California.<\/p>\n

Florida, which has no state income tax, has become more popular among Northeast second-home buyers since these changes went into effect. The thinking is that with homes priced at $1 million to $2 million, Florida\u2019s tax advantage combined with low interest rates could help balance out the federal restrictions.
\n\u201cHaving a lower interest rate (on a mortgage) with the tax advantage is a net positive, so I think we’ll continue to see that in terms of being a stimulus for luxury housing in Florida,\u201d said Noah Breakstone, CEO of BTI Partners, a Florida firm that is about to start construction on Marina Pointe, a waterfront development in Tampa, Florida, with units ranging from $700,000 to $2 million.<\/p>\n

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Photo by iAlicante Mediterranean Homes<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As low interest rates have held steady over the last few years, a subset of very astute high-net-worth buyers are increasingly experimenting with leveraging, or the use of borrowed money to build potential returns from an investment over time.\u201cAt 3%, money is really, really cheap,\u201d Ms. Pardee said, referring to recent average mortgage rates. Homebuyers \u201ccan usually make 5% to 10% doing something else,\u201d like putting their cash into bonds or stocks, rather than paying all-cash for a new home.
\n(The average for a 30-year fixed-rate home mortgage was 3.81% as of July 18, Freddie Mac reported. And 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.23%.)Mr. Breakstone said he\u2019s seen domestic buyers leveraging their assets for some time, but if interest rates drop further, more people could jump into the game.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they invest in tax-free municipal bonds, they could earn 4.5%, and the cost of their mortgage was 3.5%, net on net they have no mortgage cost, for a highly secure investment,\u201d he said. \u201cI think you\u2019re going to see those types of tradeoffs as interest rates compress.\u201dMore recently, he\u2019s seeing international buyers beginning to use this strategy, too, in the U.S., even though foreigners are required to pay higher mortgage interest rates (typically 5.5% to 6%) and make larger down payments (usually 35% to 50%) than domestic buyers.<\/p>\n

Often the leveraging strategy involves refinancing a property or taking out a home equity loan against a property\u2019s value, producing cash that can be used as a down payment toward another home. For example, a New York City-based client of Ms. Cohn\u2019s is selling a $15 million apartment and buying another $13 million apartment; she said she helped him get 70% financing as a cash-out on his current apartment and 75% financing for his new purchase.<\/p>\n

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Photo by Douglas Sheppard<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

“He effectively was able to bridge all of the down payment he needed for the new apartment, so he didn’t have to take any cash out of the market,” she said. “(With) stock markets at record highs, people want to be able to utilize the equity that they have in real estate versus having to take money out of the market and miss out on any future gains.”Ms. Cohn said she expects to see home equity rates get cheaper at the end of the month because unlike mortgage rates, they are more directly aligned with the Fed\u2019s interest rates. That will further incentivize these types of buyers to continue leveraging their property investments, she suggested.\u00a0A \u2018For Sale\u2019 Sign on U.S. Assets<\/p>\n

Another possible outcome of the Fed\u2019s rate drop is that it could weaken the U.S. dollar and therefore make property look cheaper to investors with foreign currency, according to Ms. Heuson.
\n\u201cIt’s like we put something for sale,\u201d she said. \u201cIf the dollar drops by 5%, you can put out a sign that says 5% off, for somebody who has foreign currency to spend.\u201d<\/p>\n

International buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines in overheated markets like South Florida, Seattle and San Francisco could be encouraged to return\u2014and even take out a mortgage despite it being more complicated and slightly more expensive to do so as a foreigner, as Mr. Breakstone pointed out.
\nSecondary home markets may also look more appealing compared to major metros like Boston, Seattle and San Francisco, where there\u2019s an influx of foreign investment, and where prices have climbed to historic highs in recent years.<\/p>\n

If the rate change does not come when the Fed board meets July 30-31, markets could temporarily get a little messy, Ms. Heuson said, since those expectations have already been \u201cpriced into everything.\u201d The next opportunity for a rate change is in September.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nevermind the dog days of summer. The U.S. Federal Reserve has moved the domestic and global markets in big ways.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":134,"featured_media":3747997,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,16575,750],"tags":[486,13388,115,16077,15816,1580,303,179,127,1023,13217],"class_list":["post-3747992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-real-estate","category-real-estate-talk","tag-california","tag-california-luxury-real-estate","tag-california-real-estate","tag-danielle-short","tag-haute-agent","tag-haute-residence","tag-luxury-home","tag-luxury-homes","tag-luxury-real-estate","tag-luxury-residence","tag-rancho-santa-fe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDanielle Short On The Fed Rate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nevermind the dog days of summer. 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