{"id":3486057,"date":"2015-06-11T14:59:42","date_gmt":"2015-06-11T18:59:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newwebdev.wordpress-developer.us\/hauteresidence\/?p=3486057"},"modified":"2015-06-11T14:59:42","modified_gmt":"2015-06-11T18:59:42","slug":"robert-h-robbie-dein-and-kenneth-m-ken-hayo-review-hawaiis-economic-outlook-for-the-2015-first-quarter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newwebdev.wordpress-developer.us\/hauteresidence\/robert-h-robbie-dein-and-kenneth-m-ken-hayo-review-hawaiis-economic-outlook-for-the-2015-first-quarter\/","title":{"rendered":"Robert H. \u2018Robbie\u2019 Dein and Kenneth M. \u2018Ken\u2019 Hayo Review Hawaii’s Economic Outlook for the 2015 First Quarter"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Based on the most recent developments of national and global economies, performance of Hawaii\u2019s tourism industry, labor market conditions, and growth of personal income and tax revenues, Hawaii\u2019s economy is expected to expand for the remainder of 2015 and progressing into\u00a02016. The\u00a0current DBEDT forecast seems\u00a0more optimistic than\u00a0the previous forecast.<\/p>\n

Hawaii\u2019s economy depends significantly on the\u00a0U.S. economy as well as key international economies\u2013especially Japan. According to the February 2015 Blue Chip Economic Consensus Forecasts,<\/em> U.S. real GDP is expected to increase by 3.2 percent aggregat\u20130.2 percentage\u00a0point higher than the 3.0 percent growth rate projected in the November 2014 forecast. At this time, the 2016\u00a0consensus forecast expects an overall 2.9 percent growth in U.S. real GDP.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the\u00a0February 2015 Blue Chip Economic Consensus<\/em> Forecasts<\/em>‘\u00a0<\/em>real GDP growth for Japan is now expected to increase 1.0 percent aggregate\u20130.3 percentage\u00a0point lower than the 1.3 percent growth rate projected in the November 2014 forecast. The 2016\u00a0consensus forecast expects an overall 1.4 percent growth in Japanese real GDP.<\/p>\n

For the local economy, DBEDT expects most of the economic indicators to have a similar growth rate projected in the previous forecasts.<\/p>\n

Overall, measuring by real GDP, Hawaii\u2019s 2015 economy is estimated\u00a0to increase by\u00a03.1 percent and a 0.3 percentage point above the growth rate forecasted last quarter. In 2016, Real GDP growth is expected a climb to 3.0 percent\u20140.5 of a percentage point above the growth rate forecasted last quarter.<\/p>\n

In 2015, Hawaii\u2019s unemployment rate is projected to be 3.9 percent\u20130.2 of a percentage point lower than the previous forecast and, in 2016\u20133.8 percent,\u00a0the same as the previous forecast.<\/p>\n

Visitor arrivals are expected to increase 2.1 percent in 2015\u20130.2\u00a0percentage\u00a0point higher than the previous forecast. The forecast for visitor days in 2015 increased 0.1 of a\u00a0percentage\u00a0point to 2.3 percent. The forecast for visitor expenditure in 2015 decreased to 3.4 percent from the 3.6 percent growth projected in the previous forecast. For 2016, the growth rates of visitor arrivals, visitor days, and visitor expenditures are now expected to be 1.7 percent, 1.7 percent, and 4.3 percent, respectively.<\/p>\n

Similar to the previous forecast, the projection for non-agricultural wage and salary job growth rate in 2015 is 1.5 percent. Furthermore, in 2016, jobs are predicted\u00a0to increase by 1.4 percent, the same as the previous forecast.<\/p>\n

The Honolulu Consumer Price Index (CPI) is now expected to increase 1.8 percent in 2015\u20130.4 percentage\u00a0point below the previous forecast. In 2016, the CPI is projected to increase 2.2 percent\u2013the same as the previous forecast.<\/p>\n

Also in 2015, personal income in current dollars is now expected to increase 4.5 percent\u2013the same as the previous forecast. Real personal income is currently projected to grow 2.8 percent in 2015, 0.3 percentage\u00a0point above the previous forecast. In 2016, current-dollar personal income and real personal income are expected to increase 4.8 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.<\/p>\n

Beyond 2016, the economy will continually expand, with job growth expected to increase 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.2 percent in 2018. Visitor arrivals are expected to increase 1.7 percent in 2017 and 2018. Visitor expenditures are expected to increase 3.9 percent in 2017 and 2018. Real personal income is projected to increase 2.7 percent in 2017 and 2.3 percent in 2018. Hawaii\u2019s real GDP growth is expected to increase 2.9 percent in 2017 and 2.5 percent in 2018. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.3 percent in 2018.<\/p>\n

ACTUAL AND FORECAST OF KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR HAWAII: 2013 TO 2018<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Economic Indicators<\/strong><\/td>\n2013<\/strong><\/td>\n2014<\/strong><\/td>\n2015<\/strong><\/td>\n2016<\/strong><\/td>\n2017<\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual<\/strong><\/td>\nForecast<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total population (thousands)<\/td>\n1,409<\/td>\n1,420<\/td>\n1,434<\/td>\n1,448<\/td>\n1,463<\/td>\n1,477<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Visitor arrivals (thousands) \u00b9<\/td>\n8,174<\/td>\n8,283<\/td>\n8,453<\/td>\n8,598<\/td>\n8,741<\/td>\n8,885<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Visitor days (thousands) \u00b9<\/td>\n74,942<\/td>\n75,498<\/td>\n77,206<\/td>\n78,517<\/td>\n79,806<\/td>\n81,114<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Visitor expenditures (million dollars) \u00b9<\/td>\n14,521<\/td>\n14,857<\/td>\n15,358<\/td>\n16,014<\/td>\n16,642<\/td>\n17,293<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100)<\/td>\n253.9<\/td>\n257.6<\/td>\n262.2<\/td>\n268.0<\/td>\n274.7<\/td>\n282.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Personal income (million dollars) \u00b2<\/td>\n63,468<\/td>\n66,007<\/td>\n68,977<\/td>\n72,288<\/td>\n75,903<\/td>\n79,698<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Real personal income (millions of 2008$) \u00b3<\/td>\n50,794<\/td>\n52,165<\/td>\n53,626<\/td>\n55,127<\/td>\n56,616<\/td>\n57,918<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs (thousands)<\/td>\n617.6<\/td>\n625.2<\/td>\n634.5<\/td>\n643.4<\/td>\n651.8<\/td>\n659.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Civilian unemployment rate<\/td>\n4.8<\/td>\n4.3<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n3.6<\/td>\n3.4<\/td>\n3.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gross domestic product (million dollars) 4<\/sup><\/td>\n75,235<\/td>\n78,518<\/td>\n82,328<\/td>\n86,197<\/td>\n90,028<\/td>\n94,031<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Real gross domestic product (millions of 2009$) 4<\/sup><\/td>\n70,110<\/td>\n72,003<\/td>\n74,235<\/td>\n76,462<\/td>\n78,680<\/td>\n80,647<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gross domestic product deflator (2009=100) 4<\/sup><\/td>\n107.3<\/td>\n109.0<\/td>\n110.9<\/td>\n112.7<\/td>\n114.4<\/td>\n116.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Annual Percentage Change<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total population<\/td>\n1.2<\/td>\n0.8<\/td>\n1.0<\/td>\n1.0<\/td>\n1.0<\/td>\n1.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Visitor arrivals \u00b9<\/td>\n1.8<\/td>\n1.3<\/td>\n2.1<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Visitor days \u00b9<\/td>\n0.6<\/td>\n0.7<\/td>\n2.3<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n1.6<\/td>\n1.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Visitor expenditures \u00b9<\/td>\n1.1<\/td>\n2.3<\/td>\n3.4<\/td>\n4.3<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Honolulu CPI-U<\/td>\n1.8<\/td>\n1.4<\/td>\n1.8<\/td>\n2.2<\/td>\n2.5<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Personal income \u00b2<\/td>\n2.4<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n4.5<\/td>\n4.8<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Real personal income \u00b3<\/td>\n1.1<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n2.8<\/td>\n2.8<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n2.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs<\/td>\n1.9<\/td>\n1.2<\/td>\n1.5<\/td>\n1.4<\/td>\n1.3<\/td>\n1.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Civilian unemployment rate 5<\/sup><\/td>\n-0.9<\/td>\n-0.5<\/td>\n-0.4<\/td>\n-0.3<\/td>\n-0.2<\/td>\n-0.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gross domestic product<\/td>\n3.8<\/td>\n4.4<\/td>\n4.9<\/td>\n4.7<\/td>\n4.4<\/td>\n4.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Real gross domestic product 4<\/sup><\/td>\n1.9<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n3.1<\/td>\n3.0<\/td>\n2.9<\/td>\n2.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gross domestic product deflator (2009=100) 4<\/sup><\/td>\n1.9<\/td>\n1.6<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n1.5<\/td>\n1.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

1\/ Visitors who came to Hawaii by air or by cruise ship\u2013includes supplementary expenditures estimated by HTA for 2013 and\u00a0DBEDT thereafter
\n2\/ The 2014 values are estimated based on actual values in the first three quarters of 2014
\n3\/ Using personal income deflator developed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
\n4\/ 2014 and later years are estimated by DBEDT, data for earlier years from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
\n5\/ Absolute change from previous year<\/p>\n

First Published By The State of Hawaii’s Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, May 2015, www.hawaii.gov.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Robert H. \u2018Robbie\u2019 Dein and Kenneth M. \u2018Ken\u2019 Hayo review Hawaii’s economic outlook for the 2015 first quarter. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":70,"featured_media":3486060,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1749,750],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3486057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hlrn","category-real-estate-talk","market-hi","market-maui","market-oahu-maui","market-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRobert H. \u2018Robbie\u2019 Dein and Kenneth M. \u2018Ken\u2019 Hayo Review Hawaii's Economic Outlook for the 2015 First Quarter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Robert H. \u2018Robbie\u2019 Dein and Kenneth M. \u2018Ken\u2019 Hayo review Hawaii's economic outlook for the 2015 first quarter.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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